Staying in the Middle: Responding When Markets Go Against You

I remember being around a sell-side analyst many years ago at a conference dinner. One of his companies just missed earnings and was down 8% on the day. In my mind, no big deal. Companies miss earnings all the time. And I’ve seen way worse than down 8%. But damn, you would have thought the world for him was ending that day. Absolutely distraught that he didn’t see it coming. Maybe that stock was his best idea. Maybe he just put a bunch of clients in the name. I don’t know. But things going against you in investing happen all the time. Internalizing and personalizing losses will destroy your sanity.

Not everything works out. Not everything goes up. You do this long enough and you’ll have plenty of mistakes.

This doesn’t mean you need to like losing money. This doesn’t mean you celebrate losses. But it does mean accepting that investments going against you are part of investing.

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Organizations Advance One Retirement at a Time

A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.

                                                                                                                        -German Physicist Max Planck

 

As Planck states, it’s not the superiority of new ideas that replaces bad ideas. Instead, it’s when those people with outdated ideas are no longer around, which allows fresh ideas to flourish and take hold.

Organizations advance the same way. The best ideas don’t win because of logic, rationality, or evidenced-based merit. The best ideas win when the old guard is no longer in the way. For companies, that means change happens one retirement at a time.

I remember attending a Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting around 2010.

Someone asked Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger: “I’m at a company and I want to change the culture. How do I do it?

Warren or Charlie responded something to the effect of: “You don’t. You just leave. You’ll never change the culture.”

And that stuck with me. Thinking you can go in and just revamp a company’s culture is noble, but foolhardy. Changing a group’s mindset is impossible, as most people prefer consistency and predictability vs. changing deep-held belief.

Continue reading…

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The Best Way to Hire

I recently came across the most powerful yet underappreciated hiring mindset.

In a 2014 Manual of Ideas interview, Seth Alexander, current CIO of MIT’s endowment, explains how they hire:

We do not try and hire someone every year or anything like that. Instead, we hire opportunistically. If two great people came along in the same week who would both be a great fit, we would hire them. We are always looking to hear from passionate investors about working here and really encourage people to reach out to us.

This seems obvious, but rarely practiced. Hire when you find great investors. Not when you need or have budgeted for them.

Organizations have it backwards. They hide behind self-imposed budget and planning processes. Only then after several rounds of approval and justification can they begin the search.

Here’s the problem: great candidates don’t just magically appear when your budget process is done. Or when the planning committee finally submits approval.

If you wait to hire until you have a need, then you begin a forced process of settling for people as the great people have already moved on. It’s ensured mediocrity.

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Arguing to Win vs. Arguing to Understand

Most people are worried about looking good rather than making the right decision. This is one reason teams struggle to have vigorous, yet healthy debates.

One of the greatest communication superpowers is the ability to argue forcefully and honestly, while still showing respect and admiration for the other side. This is rare. It’s not a natural occurrence. Most people are either too aggressive and harsh or too passive and soft. There’s a balance you need to find.  

That balance comes down to “Arguing to Understand” rather than “Arguing to Win.”

Understanding this difference enables honest disagreement while still enhancing relationships.

It’s a shift in perspective that allows teams to debate forcefully yet calmly versus arguing with unrestrained emotion and ego.

Everyone likes to feed their egos. Any discussion, whether between 2 people or 20, gives us the chance to boost our ego by showing how smart we are. Wise decisions are not made by showing off. Instead, they are made after honest, deliberate, and disagreeable discussions. The only way to do that is to stop worrying about how smart you look and start worrying about how much you can learn.

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Organizational Scar Tissue: Stop Creating Rules for Every Problem

When things go wrong, companies implement rules to solve them.

· Employees booking overly expensive hotels? – Devise multi-level pricing matrices (with different versions based on location and/or employee seniority) that must be followed

· Someone overpay for computer hardware? – Require multiple approvals for mousepads, keyboards, and webcams

· Booking expensive flights? Mandate the cheapest economy flights, require receipts, and a copy of your boarding pass to ensure the flight was taken

· And of course, make sure you submit a copy of your conference badge or agenda, because we need to make sure you attended what you said you were going to attend

These policies are common reactions to employee abuses and honest mistakes.

And it seems reasonable – identify the abuse and create a rule.

This works in the short term but creates a drag on a company’s long-term success. It drives a culture of compliance and rule following, prioritizing adherence vs. doing what’s best for the company. Rules take away freedom and autonomy. On the field judgment is replaced with behind the desk directives. Rules can’t adapt quickly to the real world. Creating endless exceptions just expands already monstrous rulebooks, adding confusion and frustration to employees who are looking to get things done.

All of this because a select few people took advantage of the system.

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Consistency as the Hidden Driver of Investment Success

Many factors contribute to investment success, but consistency is too often underappreciated.

Consistency isn’t exciting. And consistency doesn’t get headlines. But consistency does allow an organization’s investments and people to compound and grow over time.

Consistency means showing up, day after day, improving little by little.

Consistency lacks the excitement of the next big thing, but it’s not the big things that generate durable returns.

Instead, it’s the consistent improvement in your people and the consistent value added by your portfolio over long periods of time.

Consistency in investing is like consistency in athletics, music, or art. It’s the constant grind of consistently pushing yourself towards a common goal. But, it’s a slow and invisible process – you don’t see improvement every day. You have to trust your process.

Investors lack the staying power to build impressive results. People want variety and stimulation. Sticking with the same thing can be monotonous, even if valuable. It’s during the boring stage that we get the itch to do something more and make a big change. But doing something more is often used as an excuse to do something flashy, something that excites us. It’s not excitement that drives returns, it’s consistency.

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The Battle of Passchendaele and The Madness of Blind Effort

In his book, Good Strategy, Bad Strategy: The Difference and Why It Matters, Richard Rumelt illustrates the folly of blind effort and unyielding motivation:

In Europe, motivational speakers are not the staple on the management lecture circuit that they are in the United States, where the doctrine of leadership as motivation is alive and well. Here, for example, is H. Ross Perot: “Most people give up just when they’re about to achieve success. They quit on the one-yard line. They give up at the last minute of the game, one foot from a winning touchdown.” Hearing this, many Americans nod in agreement. Many Europeans, by contrast, hear the echo of the “one last push” at Passchendaele. There, the slaughtered troops did not suffer from a lack of motivation. They suffered from a lack of competent strategic leadership.

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After Action Reviews: An Essential Method to Accelerate Your Team’s Improvement

I think avoidance is the enemy of great. Avoidance – particular avoidance of discomfort – is even the enemy of good. It’s the enemy of the growth and change that lead to flourishing.1

In all organizations, mistakes are guaranteed to occur. What’s not guaranteed to occur is learning from these mistakes. The one positive that comes out of failure - the ability to reflect and correct mistakes, ends up neglected by the organization. Avoidance of intellectual discomfort is usually the preferred route.

There are several reasons organizations avoid learning from mistakes:

· Organizational ego prevents honest discussions about what went wrong

· Busyness means that people immediately move onto the next project

· A rush to judgment centers on superficial issues, rather than deep-seated problems

· Blame is quickly directed at external factors, absolving any need to discuss internal responsibility

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The Overton Window: Why Bad Ideas Prevail Over Good Ideas

Why do good ideas sometimes gain little traction and bad ideas flourish despite obvious flaws? It’s rarely related to the merit, logic, or evidence behind the idea. Instead, acceptance is based on political and cultural popularity. If it’s an unconventional idea that disrupts tradition, it will fail. If it’s a terrible idea, but falls within a group’s norms and expectations, it will likely succeed. The Overton Window illustrates why mediocre ideas triumph over great ideas.

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High Resiliency Organizations – What Investment Firms Should Learn from High-Risk Industries

There’s a small group of organizations that have learned to excel despite operating in extremely complex, dangerous, and unpredictable environments. For example nuclear power plants and aircraft carriers all operate in rapidly changing environments with deadly consequences for failure. They’ve learned to handle the unpredictable surprises that would decimate a typical organization. The fact that many of these organizations operate for years without failures is a testament to the deliberate design of their organization and carefully constructed team training.

Investment organizations should pay attention. Investing occurs in volatile and unpredictable environments. The future is unknowable and full of surprises. The most well-researched plans will be disrupted. For many institutional investors, the consequences for getting it wrong are measured in the billions.

Many investment firms are comforted by their highly educated and credentialed personnel, extensive technology/software resources, and a deep roster of consultants. While these components are certainly essential, they’re missing one major component.

Resiliency.

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The Right Way to Motivate Your Team: Understanding the Power of Intrinsic Rewards

Many management systems overlook the key component of any successful organization – the people. Systems and procedures are designed to meet various financial objectives, but rarely do they prioritize the human factor. But if you design systems to maximize the intrinsic motivations and fulfillment of your team, you’ll have a better chance of meeting your objectives than if you just focus on the objectives themselves.

The organizational approach to motivation, rewards, and incentives is still stuck in the past. There is still the belief that if you want to motivate your people, you just need to increase the rewards or increase the punishment.

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Lessons from the Warrior Monk: Jim Mattis

James Mattis is one of the most respected and revered military leaders of the last 50 years. Mattis served for over 40 years in the Marine Corp. Mattis in nicknamed the “Warrior Monk,” due to his incredible study of leadership and military history.1 It is reported that he has a personal library of 7,000 volumes on war and strategy.2 Mattis recently published his book, Call Sign Chaos, which details his leadership lessons learned from his military experience.

Leaders across all industries will improve their ability to lead by studying Mattis. Below are eight of the most important lessons Call Sign Chaos:

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Managing Human Error in the Investment Process

All investors make mistakes. Mistakes happen not only because of misjudgment but the nature of investing. Mistakes arise from universal conditions within the investment world.1 In other words, it’s usually not the person that’s the source of the mistakes, it’s the environmental and situational factors. It’s the system.

Rarely do we acknowledge and understand the system. We neglect environmental factors and reflexively attribute mistakes to personal factors: laziness, inattentiveness, ignorance, etc.

Investors operate in a complex world with imperfect information and an unpredictable future. Add in additional pressure from clients and organizations and investors are primed to err.

How leaders handle human error separates the great investment teams from the average. Better assessment and understanding of errors build a competitive advantage.

Yes, investors make mistakes. But they’re not made in isolation. It’s the system issues that exacerbate personal mistakes. The big idea is resolving “system” issues that will lessen the effect of unavoidable personal shortcomings.

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Managing a Team During a Crisis: Using Survival Psychology to Lead Your Team

In all walks of life, fear and stress loom on the horizon: they freeze cops in tight situations, paralyze concert performers on stage, and make skydiver’s brains lock up so much that they can forget the pull their parachutes. No one is immune.1

A crisis is challenging for all leaders. But they are exceptionally difficult for the people you lead. Of all the issues to navigate, managing your team’s psychology may be the most important. Not everyone responds well to adversity. Most people don’t. They perform at the lowest level of their training, which is next to nothing. Organizations don’t train to operate under stress. Because people are unprepared, it’s a leader’s job to anticipate reactions and make plans to manage it.

First, we need to understand how humans respond to a crisis. We’ll borrow the lessons of survival psychology to understand crisis reaction patterns. By understanding how people react, we can reduce stress and anxiety.

Second, we’ll discuss steps to proactively help our teams. Stop with vague, naïve advice. Start with evidence-based advice proven in real-world situations.

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