Metric Dysfunction

The world is obsessed with quantifying every possible outcome, with the hope that creating a metric will provide objective, unbiased feedback on organizational performance.

The usefulness of metrics depends on how they are used. Metrics are not intrinsically good nor bad.

Context is everything.

If used wisely, they provide unambiguous clarity.

If used poorly, they replace judgment and expertise with false precision, misaligned incentives, and irrelevant quantification.

The intent behind metrics is legitimate. The implementation, however, fails to account for the drawbacks and incentive distortions inherent in trying to track complex activities.

First, we need to understand the limitations of metrics.

Second, always incorporate human judgment when assessing an outcome-based metric.

Metrics, taken at face value and without interpretation, do more harm than good.

Jerry Muller, author of The Tyranny of Metrics, describes the damage and insanity of metric obsession. Jerry shares many examples of how metrics have disrupted organizations.   

Let’s first look at all the ways metrics have gone astray…

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Relative Superiority: The Key to Win Against Bigger Opponents

Every team should be able to answer the question, “Where do we have relative superiority?”

Retired four-star admiral and former Navy Seal William McRaven, author of Spec Ops: Case Studies in Special Operations Warfare Theory and Practice, explains the concept:

Simply stated, relative superiority is a condition that exists when an attacking force, generally smaller, gains a decisive advantage over a larger or well-defended enemy. The value of the concept of relative superiority lies in its ability to illustrate which positive forces influence the success of a mission and to show how the frictions of war affect the achievement of the goal.

In other words, it’s possible that a smaller force, by defying conventional wisdom, can organize and defeat an imposing, yet scattered opponent.

McRaven continues:

Large forces are more susceptible to the frictions of war. The principles of special operations work because they seek to reduce warfare to its simplest level and thereby limit the negative effects of chance, uncertainty, and the enemy’s will.

Although gaining relative superiority doesn’t guarantee success, it is necessary for success. If we can determine, prior to an operation, the best way to achieve relative superiority, then we can tailor special operations planning and preparation to improve our chances of victory.

Your team and resources may not be as big as your competitors, but your ability to concentrate, move fast, and adapt, is well within your control.

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What I Learned From Complications: A Surgeon’s Notes on an Imperfect Science

In 2002, Atul Gawande wrote Complications: A Surgeon’s Note on an Imperfect Science.

It reveals what most doctors know, but will never admit: medicine is an imperfect, mistake-filled process, far from the idealized world doctors would like it to be.

Investing is no different. Like surgery, investing is imperfect, no matter how data-driven, hyperrational, and supersmart we are. Gawande explains how to handle the imperfections, the mistakes, the guesswork, and the uncertainty.

Gawande is a world-renowned surgeon and multiple time best-selling author. He’s published several books subsequently, including The Checklist Manifesto, Better: A Surgeon’s Notes on Performance, and Being Mortal.

Investors can learn a lot about investing from areas specifically outside of investing. Look, I’ve learned a lot from Buffett, but there’s only so much I can digest before it starts to sound the same.

Start learning outside the industry.

Here are the 8 lessons to learn from the book:

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One Simple Change to Fix Exit Interviews

Exit interviews are useful. To understand why people are leaving, get direct feedback from those departing.

There’s just one problem - don’t wait until people leave to have these conversations.

Understand and discuss frustrations before people leave, not after they’ve made their decision.

These discussions don’t have to be formal. Nor does it have to be a high-pressure, high-stakes conversation.  Just ask people about their issues and what they would like changed, especially as it compares to outside opportunities.

It’s perplexing for leaders to wait until someone is walking out the door to learn. Learn while people are there. Make it a fluid, ongoing process. Exit interviews shouldn’t be a one-time thing but a continuous dialogue over a person’s career.

When employees feel like they must wait until they leave to voice issues, that’s a problem. Many employees and employers don’t want to talk about the obvious truth: people leave jobs. It’s not uncommon, so get over it. Don’t pretend it doesn’t exist.

Read more below…

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Organizations Advance One Retirement at a Time

A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.

                                                                                                                        -German Physicist Max Planck

 

As Planck states, it’s not the superiority of new ideas that replaces bad ideas. Instead, it’s when those people with outdated ideas are no longer around, which allows fresh ideas to flourish and take hold.

Organizations advance the same way. The best ideas don’t win because of logic, rationality, or evidenced-based merit. The best ideas win when the old guard is no longer in the way. For companies, that means change happens one retirement at a time.

I remember attending a Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting around 2010.

Someone asked Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger: “I’m at a company and I want to change the culture. How do I do it?

Warren or Charlie responded something to the effect of: “You don’t. You just leave. You’ll never change the culture.”

And that stuck with me. Thinking you can go in and just revamp a company’s culture is noble, but foolhardy. Changing a group’s mindset is impossible, as most people prefer consistency and predictability vs. changing deep-held belief.

Continue reading…

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The Best Way to Hire

I recently came across the most powerful yet underappreciated hiring mindset.

In a 2014 Manual of Ideas interview, Seth Alexander, current CIO of MIT’s endowment, explains how they hire:

We do not try and hire someone every year or anything like that. Instead, we hire opportunistically. If two great people came along in the same week who would both be a great fit, we would hire them. We are always looking to hear from passionate investors about working here and really encourage people to reach out to us.

This seems obvious, but rarely practiced. Hire when you find great investors. Not when you need or have budgeted for them.

Organizations have it backwards. They hide behind self-imposed budget and planning processes. Only then after several rounds of approval and justification can they begin the search.

Here’s the problem: great candidates don’t just magically appear when your budget process is done. Or when the planning committee finally submits approval.

If you wait to hire until you have a need, then you begin a forced process of settling for people as the great people have already moved on. It’s ensured mediocrity.

Click on the title to continue reading…

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On Effort and Holiday Cards

I’ve been flooded by electronic holiday cards wishing happy holidays and a prosperous 2023.

But the senders are forgetting one major thing. Effort matters. An electronic holiday card means nothing when it’s blasted out of a CRM with no human touch or effort. It’s the meaning and effort behind the message that matters. Not the message itself.

I’m not looking for facts. I’m not looking for information. I’m looking for someone who cares enough to craft a note to me personally, even if it’s just a few sentences. I’m looking for someone who took time out of their busy day. That time is costly, and therefore, it means a lot.

Here’s the bigger lesson: if you want to send something valuable, it needs to have some cost. That may be monetary or it may be time. But expending a cost shows you care.

It’s the same thing with rubber-stamped signatures – if you are a leader, sign the damn card/letter/note yourself. And yes, we can tell if your assistant signs it for you. If you are too busy for this simple act, what message does that send? No one’s asking for you to write a book, but just make it personal.

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Arguing to Win vs. Arguing to Understand

Most people are worried about looking good rather than making the right decision. This is one reason teams struggle to have vigorous, yet healthy debates.

One of the greatest communication superpowers is the ability to argue forcefully and honestly, while still showing respect and admiration for the other side. This is rare. It’s not a natural occurrence. Most people are either too aggressive and harsh or too passive and soft. There’s a balance you need to find.  

That balance comes down to “Arguing to Understand” rather than “Arguing to Win.”

Understanding this difference enables honest disagreement while still enhancing relationships.

It’s a shift in perspective that allows teams to debate forcefully yet calmly versus arguing with unrestrained emotion and ego.

Everyone likes to feed their egos. Any discussion, whether between 2 people or 20, gives us the chance to boost our ego by showing how smart we are. Wise decisions are not made by showing off. Instead, they are made after honest, deliberate, and disagreeable discussions. The only way to do that is to stop worrying about how smart you look and start worrying about how much you can learn.

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Accuracy Not Confidence

Confidence and hubris are abundant in the investment world, especially in bull markets. Everyone claims to know where the market is going, what the Fed will or should do, and what the next great idea is. Just ask, and you’ll have plenty of people talking about their can’t-miss ideas.

Confidence is infectious. We all want to know what the market is going to do. We all want to know when the next big crash is coming. We hate uncertainty. So anyone that can remove that uncertainty has our attention.

But it’s not confidence that we want. It’s accuracy. Accuracy in the sense of actually making investment decisions that succeed long term.

Confidence is about predicting success. Accuracy is actually delivering it. That’s a big difference.

Confidence doesn’t improve accuracy; it only appears too. Confidence has no bearing on whether a decision is good or bad. Decision quality depends on your diligence, research, understanding, and timing.

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Identity Investing

Identities create comfort and order in a messy world. Identity politics is the best example. Political affiliations shortcut thinking. As soon as we realize an idea is Republican or Democrat, our mind is made up without even evaluating the idea itself.

No need to consider the merits.

No need to examine the nuances.

No need to learn from the other side.

Just let the identity decide for you.

This happens in the investment world too. Investors form identities which hinder the ability to learn from opposing views. We are suckers for identities because it saves us time and energy. And it fuels our ego when we hear nothing but things we already agree with. But it also creates defensive rigidity, mindless groupthink, and destroys the ability to adapt. For example,

· Bullish investors dismiss all bears as doomsayers

· Bearish investors dismiss all bulls as naïve optimists

· Value investors dismiss all growth stocks as expensive/unsustainable

· Growth investors dismiss all value stocks as falling knives

· Fundamental investors dismiss quants as opaque black boxes

· Bottom-up investors scoff at the futility of a macro investor’s economic views

· Active investors dismiss passive investing as lazy and boring

· Passive investors dismiss active strategies as paying high fees for underperformance

· Public market investors dismiss alternative investors paying 2 and 20

· And on and on…

It’s easy to dismiss strategies that conflict with our identity. Why spend time on other strategies when our strategy is superior?

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Checklists Gone Wrong

Checklists are simple yet powerful tools. A wide array of industries have succeeded with checklists. Pilots use them to improve flight safety. Hospitals use them to improve patient care. Nuclear power plants use them to ensure safe operations.

Atul Gawande, famed surgeon and New York Times best-selling author, wrote the book on checklists – The Checklist Manifesto. It’s an insightful, practical look at how organizations use checklists to succeed in pressure-filled environments.

Checklist implementation is very popular. Organizations enthusiastically publicize how checklists have counteracted human and organizational flaws.

But like most good things, checklists have been misconstrued and distorted to become a headache, not a help, to an organization.

Organizations require mindless checklist completion instead of using them as a tool to improve understanding. It’s not the finishing of a checklist that drives value. It’s the thinking that occurs along the way that otherwise would not have happened. Checklists have become another mandated task to get out of the way. After all, bureaucratic organizations love nothing more than adding additional documentation and compliance tasks.

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9 Ideas I Learned from The Death of Expertise: The Campaign Against Established Knowledge and Why It Matters

Tom Nichol’s The Death of Expertise: The Campaign Against Established Knowledge and Why It Matters provides valuable insight on how ordinary humans can dismiss experts by believing they know more than people who have spent decades studying a topic. The ease of information access has caused many people to believe they know more than they really do. Confidence is now substituted for actual knowledge. Egos have grown so large that people are conditioned to attack those they disagree with, rather than try to learn from them. Individuals are becoming more convinced they are right even as their ignorance grows. The book covers several reasons why this occurs. While you can’t prevent others from behaving this way, this book is a helpful guide to help yourself identify and correct overconfidence in your knowledge.

The 9 Best Ideas

o We Prioritize Egos and Emotions Over Rationality and Humility

o We Love Information That Confirms Our Beliefs

o Bad Information Crowds Out Knowledge

o It’s Not That Experts Are Never Wrong, Just Wrong Less Often Than You

o The Illusion of Explanatory Depth: Knowing Random Facts Doesn’t Equal Knowledge

o We Struggle with Uncertainty and Unpredictability and Will Do/Believe Almost Anything to Remove These Feelings

o Objectivity

o We’ve Conflated Getting a Degree with Being Educated

o We No Longer Want to Do the Deep Work

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10 Ideas I Learned This Week From Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error

Kathryn Schulz’s Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error provides numerous examples of how we fail in our decisions and why we habitually repeat the same mistakes. There are several practical ideas that will improve decision making at the personal and organizational level. The challenge, as with any type of change, is with the implementation. Sure, it’s easy to say you’ll seek out ideas you don’t agree with, but how many of us actually do that? The key is putting ideas into practice and treating these like a skill that can be developed. Reading about these ideas without using them doesn’t improve your ability. These ideas are especially useful for those in knowledge-based fields, where you don’t always get the tangible feedback like you would in a physical trade.

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The Illusion of Explanatory Depth: Why We Know Less Than We Think We Do

We know less than we think we do.

Most of the time, it’s not a big deal. We can navigate our days just fine.

In many areas, however, it’s critical to acknowledge what we know vs. what we don’t know.

We need to be well-calibrated. That is, we need to make sure our confidence matches our actual knowledge. When we think we know more than we do, we make bad decisions, even though we remain supremely confident in our decisions. This mismatch has real consequences:

· Thinking you know more about money and investments than you really do means you will lose money

· Thinking you know more about leadership and management than you really do means you will lose good people

· Thinking you know more about communication than you really do means strained relationships

· Thinking you know more about parenting than you really do means you will struggle to raise good kids

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Security Theater

Security theater is a concept that you’ll experience everywhere once you know what it is.

Bruce Schneier, a security expert who created the phrase, explains:

Security theater refers to security measures that make people feel more secure without doing anything to actually improve their security.1

Here’s how Schneier describes the concept:

An example: the photo ID checks that have sprung up in office buildings. No-one has ever explained why verifying that someone has a photo ID provides any actual security, but it looks like security to have a uniformed guard-for-hire looking at ID cards. Airport-security examples include the National Guard troops stationed at US airports in the months after 9/11 — their guns had no bullets. The US colour-coded system of threat levels, the pervasive harassment of photographers, and the metal detectors that are increasingly common in hotels and office buildings since the Mumbai terrorist attacks, are additional examples.

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The Battle of Passchendaele and The Madness of Blind Effort

In his book, Good Strategy, Bad Strategy: The Difference and Why It Matters, Richard Rumelt illustrates the folly of blind effort and unyielding motivation:

In Europe, motivational speakers are not the staple on the management lecture circuit that they are in the United States, where the doctrine of leadership as motivation is alive and well. Here, for example, is H. Ross Perot: “Most people give up just when they’re about to achieve success. They quit on the one-yard line. They give up at the last minute of the game, one foot from a winning touchdown.” Hearing this, many Americans nod in agreement. Many Europeans, by contrast, hear the echo of the “one last push” at Passchendaele. There, the slaughtered troops did not suffer from a lack of motivation. They suffered from a lack of competent strategic leadership.

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After Action Reviews: An Essential Method to Accelerate Your Team’s Improvement

I think avoidance is the enemy of great. Avoidance – particular avoidance of discomfort – is even the enemy of good. It’s the enemy of the growth and change that lead to flourishing.1

In all organizations, mistakes are guaranteed to occur. What’s not guaranteed to occur is learning from these mistakes. The one positive that comes out of failure - the ability to reflect and correct mistakes, ends up neglected by the organization. Avoidance of intellectual discomfort is usually the preferred route.

There are several reasons organizations avoid learning from mistakes:

· Organizational ego prevents honest discussions about what went wrong

· Busyness means that people immediately move onto the next project

· A rush to judgment centers on superficial issues, rather than deep-seated problems

· Blame is quickly directed at external factors, absolving any need to discuss internal responsibility

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The Overton Window: Why Bad Ideas Prevail Over Good Ideas

Why do good ideas sometimes gain little traction and bad ideas flourish despite obvious flaws? It’s rarely related to the merit, logic, or evidence behind the idea. Instead, acceptance is based on political and cultural popularity. If it’s an unconventional idea that disrupts tradition, it will fail. If it’s a terrible idea, but falls within a group’s norms and expectations, it will likely succeed. The Overton Window illustrates why mediocre ideas triumph over great ideas.

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High Resiliency Organizations – What Investment Firms Should Learn from High-Risk Industries

There’s a small group of organizations that have learned to excel despite operating in extremely complex, dangerous, and unpredictable environments. For example nuclear power plants and aircraft carriers all operate in rapidly changing environments with deadly consequences for failure. They’ve learned to handle the unpredictable surprises that would decimate a typical organization. The fact that many of these organizations operate for years without failures is a testament to the deliberate design of their organization and carefully constructed team training.

Investment organizations should pay attention. Investing occurs in volatile and unpredictable environments. The future is unknowable and full of surprises. The most well-researched plans will be disrupted. For many institutional investors, the consequences for getting it wrong are measured in the billions.

Many investment firms are comforted by their highly educated and credentialed personnel, extensive technology/software resources, and a deep roster of consultants. While these components are certainly essential, they’re missing one major component.

Resiliency.

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The Right Way to Motivate Your Team: Understanding the Power of Intrinsic Rewards

Many management systems overlook the key component of any successful organization – the people. Systems and procedures are designed to meet various financial objectives, but rarely do they prioritize the human factor. But if you design systems to maximize the intrinsic motivations and fulfillment of your team, you’ll have a better chance of meeting your objectives than if you just focus on the objectives themselves.

The organizational approach to motivation, rewards, and incentives is still stuck in the past. There is still the belief that if you want to motivate your people, you just need to increase the rewards or increase the punishment.

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