What I Learned From Complications: A Surgeon’s Notes on an Imperfect Science

In 2002, Atul Gawande wrote Complications: A Surgeon’s Note on an Imperfect Science.

It reveals what most doctors know, but will never admit: medicine is an imperfect, mistake-filled process, far from the idealized world doctors would like it to be.

Investing is no different. Like surgery, investing is imperfect, no matter how data-driven, hyperrational, and supersmart we are. Gawande explains how to handle the imperfections, the mistakes, the guesswork, and the uncertainty.

Gawande is a world-renowned surgeon and multiple time best-selling author. He’s published several books subsequently, including The Checklist Manifesto, Better: A Surgeon’s Notes on Performance, and Being Mortal.

Investors can learn a lot about investing from areas specifically outside of investing. Look, I’ve learned a lot from Buffett, but there’s only so much I can digest before it starts to sound the same.

Start learning outside the industry.

Here are the 8 lessons to learn from the book:

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Investment Committee Governance: The Forgotten Foundation of Investment Success

Of all the contributors to investment success, the role of the investment committee is the most neglected.

It’s rarely the most exciting topic to discuss. It’s never as urgent or volatile as market-related issues. But it’s probably more critical to your investment process than the investment strategies themselves. It’s the foundation of your team’s success and a suboptimal committee will slowly degrade and destroy a quality investment team.

Investing is difficult. To compound those difficulties with a second-rate committee will guarantee mediocrity and underperformance.

Weak committees are easy to spot:

  • They will second guess sound, long-term strategies just when they are the most attractive

  • They will micromanage the investment team

  • They will focus on noise and randomness

  • They will overreact to short-term underperformance

  • They will enjoy the perks of committee membership, but not do the work

  • They will prioritize consensus, comfort, and conformity vs. active debate and disagreement

  • ·They will use their position to advance personal or political ambitions

  • ·They will fall asleep during meetings, as I’ve witnessed firsthand

Investment committee change is difficult. By design, committee turnover is structured to be slow and deliberate. Second, educating and shaping the thought process of a committee takes a long time. Opinions change slowly. In fact, it may take many years, meeting after meeting, of reinforcing the proper investment process before you see acceptance.

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Key Person Language and GP Removal

People are the key variable in private markets investing, so when issues come up relating to the actions of the GP, it’s important to understand what options LP’s have. In addition, because the assets are private, there’s very little clarity and insight on what’s really going on inside the GP. Investors place a lot of trust in the GP, which is why they want to ensure they operate in a manner that is aligned with LP’s.

LP’s need to ensure that the key principals remain at the fund and focused on the strategy. If this does not occur, or there are issues with the GP, then LP’s should understand what options they have, including suspending the investment period or removal of the GP, if necessary.

These are my collected notes over several years of private markets investing. Each LP should think about what is important to their firm and make sure the fund agreements reflect those priorities. These are principles and concepts to think about and discuss, not explicit legal advice.

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Subscription Lines and Other Fund Lending facilities

The following are my notes collected over several years of working with subscription lines within alternative assets. While not always the most critical issue, understanding sub lines and other lending facilities can help improve LP fund governance, performance reporting, and enable the LP to ask better questions during due diligence and throughout the fund life.

Overview

• Subscription lines are not a new phenomenon in private markets as they’ve been used for decades. They allow managers to borrow to fund bridge financings and then eventually call the capital from limited partners

• The ability to delay calling capital enhances the manager’s flexibility to execute deals and shortens the J-curve, enhancing the fund’s Internal Rate of Return (IRR), particularly early in a fund’s life, and therefore its competitiveness on a quartile basis

• Funds use credit lines to boost Net IRR's and accelerate carried interest, particularly in funds with European style waterfalls

• From an LP perspective, the use of these lines helps smooth cash flows and eases the administrative burden of responding to capital calls.

• Improves capital call logistics – small investment outlays more conveniently aggregated

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Identity Investing

Identities create comfort and order in a messy world. Identity politics is the best example. Political affiliations shortcut thinking. As soon as we realize an idea is Republican or Democrat, our mind is made up without even evaluating the idea itself.

No need to consider the merits.

No need to examine the nuances.

No need to learn from the other side.

Just let the identity decide for you.

This happens in the investment world too. Investors form identities which hinder the ability to learn from opposing views. We are suckers for identities because it saves us time and energy. And it fuels our ego when we hear nothing but things we already agree with. But it also creates defensive rigidity, mindless groupthink, and destroys the ability to adapt. For example,

· Bullish investors dismiss all bears as doomsayers

· Bearish investors dismiss all bulls as naïve optimists

· Value investors dismiss all growth stocks as expensive/unsustainable

· Growth investors dismiss all value stocks as falling knives

· Fundamental investors dismiss quants as opaque black boxes

· Bottom-up investors scoff at the futility of a macro investor’s economic views

· Active investors dismiss passive investing as lazy and boring

· Passive investors dismiss active strategies as paying high fees for underperformance

· Public market investors dismiss alternative investors paying 2 and 20

· And on and on…

It’s easy to dismiss strategies that conflict with our identity. Why spend time on other strategies when our strategy is superior?

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The Jungle is Neutral

Between stimulus and response there is a space. In that space is our power to choose our response. In our response lies our growth and our freedom.1

In his book, The Jungle is Neutral, Freddy Spencer Chapman describes his experience as a World War II British soldier fighting in the Malaysian jungles. The fighting was intense, but the effect on the soldiers’ mindset was even more unsettling:

My experience is that the length of life of the British private soldier accidentally left behind in the Malayan [modern day Malaysia] jungle was only a few months…to them the jungle seemed predominantly hostile, being full of man-eating tigers, deadly fevers, venomous snakes and scorpions, natives with poison darts, and a host of half-imagined nameless terrors. They were unable to adapt themselves to a new way of life and a diet of rice and vegetables; in this green hell they expected to be dead within a few weeks – and as a rule they were…

It’s not surprising how the terror of jungle warfighting took a toll on soldiers.

However, not all soldiers capitulated. Some soldiers viewed the jungle opportunistically, with supplies and cover available for all:

The other school of thought, that the jungle teems with wild animals, fowls, and fish which are simply there for the taking, and the luscious tropical fruits-pawpaw, yams, bread-fruit and all that, drop from the trees, is equally misleading. The truth is that the jungle is neutral. It provides any amount of fresh water, and unlimited cover for friend as well as foe – an armed neutrality, if you like, but neutrality nevertheless. It is the attitude of mind that determines whether you go under or survive. There is nothing good or bad, but thinking makes it so. The jungle itself is neutral.

The jungle was neither for nor against any soldier. Neither good nor bad. Just neutral. How soldiers responded to this neutral environment determined the “good” or “bad” outcomes.

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Consistency as the Hidden Driver of Investment Success

Many factors contribute to investment success, but consistency is too often underappreciated.

Consistency isn’t exciting. And consistency doesn’t get headlines. But consistency does allow an organization’s investments and people to compound and grow over time.

Consistency means showing up, day after day, improving little by little.

Consistency lacks the excitement of the next big thing, but it’s not the big things that generate durable returns.

Instead, it’s the consistent improvement in your people and the consistent value added by your portfolio over long periods of time.

Consistency in investing is like consistency in athletics, music, or art. It’s the constant grind of consistently pushing yourself towards a common goal. But, it’s a slow and invisible process – you don’t see improvement every day. You have to trust your process.

Investors lack the staying power to build impressive results. People want variety and stimulation. Sticking with the same thing can be monotonous, even if valuable. It’s during the boring stage that we get the itch to do something more and make a big change. But doing something more is often used as an excuse to do something flashy, something that excites us. It’s not excitement that drives returns, it’s consistency.

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Security Theater

Security theater is a concept that you’ll experience everywhere once you know what it is.

Bruce Schneier, a security expert who created the phrase, explains:

Security theater refers to security measures that make people feel more secure without doing anything to actually improve their security.1

Here’s how Schneier describes the concept:

An example: the photo ID checks that have sprung up in office buildings. No-one has ever explained why verifying that someone has a photo ID provides any actual security, but it looks like security to have a uniformed guard-for-hire looking at ID cards. Airport-security examples include the National Guard troops stationed at US airports in the months after 9/11 — their guns had no bullets. The US colour-coded system of threat levels, the pervasive harassment of photographers, and the metal detectors that are increasingly common in hotels and office buildings since the Mumbai terrorist attacks, are additional examples.

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Nine Rules to Fight Deception in the Investment Process

Independent, critical thinking is an unnatural process, especially for investors. It’s easier to go with our gut instinct, instead of relying on the facts. It’s easier to go with our emotion than diligently follow the evidence. Above all, we gravitate towards stories and promises rather than logic and reason.

Carl Sagan was one of the great astronomers and scientists of the 20th century. He published more than 600 scientific papers, co-wrote Cosmos, the most widely watched T.V. series in American history, and wrote the novel Contact, which was later made into a movie.1

One of his most important efforts was his support for independent, skeptical thinking. It’s the application of the scientific method to our daily interactions. In his book, The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark, Sagan includes a chapter called “The Fine Art of Baloney Detection.”2 Sagan proposed 9 simple rules on how to apply the scientific method to better understand the world around us and protect against deception. It’s advice that fights against lazy thinking and raises our standard on what we choose to believe.

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Bob Maynard on The Challenges of Complex Investing

While many institutional investors have flocked to alternative assets, few have been able to translate these allocations into successful performance. Allocating is easy, performing is hard.

Bob Maynard, CIO of the Idaho Public Employees Retirement System, illustrates the difficulty of executing on alternative strategies:

All of these additional areas add complexity and require time for Boards and staffs, and are often not worth the extra effort unless there is a clear organizational commitment or belief in a certain additional approach that can survive changing Boards and staffs over the years that may occur before the extra efforts pay off. One of the most valuable resources of an investment organization is not the assets in the portfolio, but the time required of the Board and staff. After the basics have been accomplished, additional investment efforts in more complex areas have to expressly trade off the requirement of additional resources and time compared to the often problematic longer-term return benefits.1

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High Resiliency Organizations – What Investment Firms Should Learn from High-Risk Industries

There’s a small group of organizations that have learned to excel despite operating in extremely complex, dangerous, and unpredictable environments. For example nuclear power plants and aircraft carriers all operate in rapidly changing environments with deadly consequences for failure. They’ve learned to handle the unpredictable surprises that would decimate a typical organization. The fact that many of these organizations operate for years without failures is a testament to the deliberate design of their organization and carefully constructed team training.

Investment organizations should pay attention. Investing occurs in volatile and unpredictable environments. The future is unknowable and full of surprises. The most well-researched plans will be disrupted. For many institutional investors, the consequences for getting it wrong are measured in the billions.

Many investment firms are comforted by their highly educated and credentialed personnel, extensive technology/software resources, and a deep roster of consultants. While these components are certainly essential, they’re missing one major component.

Resiliency.

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My Notes from ILPA's 2020 Member Conference - Scrutinizing Terms in a Down Market

ILPA recently hosted a workshop on scrutinizing fund terms during the recent COVID-19 epidemic. Given the sudden and drastic downturn, funds used levers that caught LP’s off-guard. Below are my notes on the biggest takeaways and areas of concerns for LPs

Overall approach

· Are we getting the transparency we need?

· What do we need to be proactive about

· Are there adjustments to be made with new commitments?

· What have we learned through the COVID experience?

Do we have confidence GP's are using the following tools in the best interests of LPs?

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My Notes from ILPA's Legal Town Hall - Deal Killers

Here are my notes from ILPA’s 3/19/20 Legal Town Hall on Deal Killers. Several LP’s discussed the most common non-investment related issues they see. While all organizations have different levels of comfortability on these issues, it’s useful to see what risks LPs are seeing and their mitigation approach. These risks focus on issues besides the typical investment and fee concerns.

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The Curse of Vague Thinking: How Empty Rhetoric and Hollow Words Mislead Investors

Vague thinking surrounds us. It’s permeated politics (“come together in a bipartisan way”), business management (“leverage synergies and create win-wins”), corporate mission statements (“build a corporate culture that respects and values the unique strengths…”), and of course, investing.

Every day we are inundated with empty rhetoric used to hide, rather than reveal, the truth. It promotes laziness and obscures incompetence. It’s a tempting way to communicate. It’s the path of least resistance.

Vague communication is standard in the investment world. Market experts talk in vague generalities and obfuscating one-liners that do nothing to further investors’ understanding of the markets.

The investment world is an unrelenting assault of vague language. Vague verbiage has become a parasite in our quest to make wise investment decisions. Everyone pretends to know the future. No one admits ignorance. The illusion of knowledge is real. It’s become absurd.

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The Fallibility of Experts: How Experts Lead Us Astray and How to Prevent It

Be careful what you ask experts. Experts are bad at predictions, but are great at assessing base rates.1

Experts are the go-to source for life’s uncertainties. We rely on them for guidance and advice during ambiguous environments. We crave their authority, confidence, and conviction.

But the evidence is clear - experts are awful at predicting the future. Expertise is not synonymous with superior forecasting ability.2

Experts are extremely useful, if properly directed. As we’ll see, we can use an expert’s deep knowledge to improve our decisions. However, the process is not intuitive and doesn’t happen automatically. The burden is on us to ask the right questions.

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Managing Human Error in the Investment Process

All investors make mistakes. Mistakes happen not only because of misjudgment but the nature of investing. Mistakes arise from universal conditions within the investment world.1 In other words, it’s usually not the person that’s the source of the mistakes, it’s the environmental and situational factors. It’s the system.

Rarely do we acknowledge and understand the system. We neglect environmental factors and reflexively attribute mistakes to personal factors: laziness, inattentiveness, ignorance, etc.

Investors operate in a complex world with imperfect information and an unpredictable future. Add in additional pressure from clients and organizations and investors are primed to err.

How leaders handle human error separates the great investment teams from the average. Better assessment and understanding of errors build a competitive advantage.

Yes, investors make mistakes. But they’re not made in isolation. It’s the system issues that exacerbate personal mistakes. The big idea is resolving “system” issues that will lessen the effect of unavoidable personal shortcomings.

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Quit Trying to Time The Bottom And Start Looking For Value

There’s no shortage of investors trying to guess the market bottom. Fortunately, it’s completely irrelevant to delivering exceptional returns through this crisis.

We’d all love to know when the market bottoms. We’d be able to load up on risk assets and see nothing but immediate gains. But successful investing doesn’t work that way. No one consistently calls the bottom. Some get lucky once or twice, but never in a systematic way. Mostly luck, not skill.

You’ll always be too early or too late. You won’t know the bottom until you look back with hindsight years later. So if you shouldn’t be timing the bottom, what should you be doing?

Stop trying to call the bottom and start trying to find value.

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How to Handle Market Uncertainty - Why Emotional Stability Beats IQ

The limiting factor for investors is not their IQ, but their temperament, rationality, and independent thinking. As Warren Buffet says, "You don't need to be a rocket scientist. Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with a 130 IQ. Rationality is essential. Even if you do have an IQ of 160, you should just give away 30 points to somebody else because you don't need a lot of brains to be in this business. What you do need is emotional stability. You have to be able to think independently."1

Investors who lack control over their temperament make foolish decisions during market extremes. They struggle to respond to unexpected events in a thoughtful way. Instead of approaching decisions in a calm and rational manner, they abandon their process and invest based on their gut. They can get lucky for a while, but eventually will fail. Even brilliant investors who get caught up in the euphoria of a market boom or the pessimism of a market crash will abandon what has worked so well for them. They can’t resist the overwhelming pressure to exert control and do something now, no matter how foolish in the long-run.

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The Resilient Investor: 10 Habits of Mentally Tough Investors

Great investors develop mental toughness through proper mindset and habits. These are 10 guiding principles to condition the mind for investment success.

1. They Don’t Worry About Issues Outside Their Control

Much of investing and life is outside your control. Wise investors learn to recognize what they can control and what they can’t. The things that can’t be controlled are ignored.

2. They Don’t Obsess Over Volatility

It’s a fact: every day markets go up and down. Trying to obsessively negate volatility usually worsens it. The value of every asset you own, including your own human capital, moves up and down every day. Only you don’t see it, so you normally don’t worry about it. Do the same for random market fluctuations.

3. They Don’t Judge Success by Short-Term Results

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The Resilient Investor: Harnessing Investor Psychology in a Volatile and Unpredictable World

Today I’m writing about the most neglected yet important thing to successful investing -the command of investor psychology. Investing is one of the most complex and stressful activities we do. Most of us know the emotional toll investing takes when markets are volatile and unpredictable. Research from cognitive psychology, neuroscience, and behavioral economics has yielded the same insight: that not only do we make mistakes, but we make bigger and more frequent mistakes when under pressure. The resources that often try to help, like the media and professional investment advice, often end up compounding, rather than eliminating, the error.

Psychology is critical because we are human. We are not robots. We are not perfectly rational. We make mistakes. It’s especially in investing where we tend to make the same mistakes and exhibit the same poor behavior. We can document this behavior starting with the Dutch Tulip Bubble in the 1630s, all the way through the 2009 financial crisis, and now with the cryptocurrency bubble.

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